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Aurora visibility in Kiruna (Aurora appearance in the all-sky movie data (mpg):
[Kiruna 2003.9~12]  [Kiruna 2004.1~12]  [Kiruna 2005.1~4]  [Abisko 2005.10~12]  [Abisko 2006.1~12]

Note: Real-time image (1 min update) is also available at [Kiruna]  [Abisko]

List of day-to-day visibility (2003.9 ~ 2005.4) in pdf
Summary: overnight probability (2003.9 ~ 2005.4)
Summary: over 3-night probability (2003.9 ~ 2005.4)
List of best days (Highlight)



Overnight Probability (20040901-20050415: 444 days)

Observation rate was
month	auroral arc	active aurora	expansion < 24 UT		cloudy 17~22 UT
2003.9	71% (20/28)	64% (18/28)	36% (10/28)		28% ( 8/29)
2003.10	61% (19/31)	58% (18/31)	45% (14/31)		45% (14/31)
2003.11	73% (19/26)	73% (19/26)	58% (15/26)		42% (11/26)
2003.12	67% (19/28)	61% (17/28)	36% (10/28)		29% ( 8/28)
2004.1	65% (20/31)	64% (20/31)	42% (13+1/31)		42% (13/31)
2004.2	72% (21/29)	69% (20/29)	34% (10/29)		45% (13/29)
2004.3	48% (15/31)	39% (12/31)	26% ( 8/31)		52% (16/31)
2004.4	64% ( 7/11)	55% ( 6/11)	45% ( 5/11)		18% ( 2/11)
2004.9	33% (10/30)	33% (10/30)	17% (5/30)		60% (18/30)
2004.10	52% (16/31)	43% (15/31)	29% (9/31)		45% (14,13/31)
2004.11	80% (24/30)	80% (24/30)	50% (15/30)		20% ( 6/30)
2004.12	58% (18/31)	48% (15/31)	29% ( 9/31)		58% (18/31)
2005.1	45% (14/31)	45% (14/31)	23% ( 7/31)		61% (19/31)
2005.2	61% (17/28)	53% (15/28)	29% ( 8/28)		25% ( 7/28)
2005.3	71% (20/28)	69% (19/28)	43% (12/28)		32% ( 9/28)
2005.4	47% ( 7/15)	47% ( 7/15)	20% ( 3/15)		67% (10/15)
2003 fall	68% (77/113)	64% (72/113)	43% (49/113)		35% (41/114)
2004 spring	62% (63/102)	58% (58/102)	35% (36/102)		43% (44/102)
2004 fall	57% (72/127)	53% (67/127)	31% (39/127)		46% (58/127)
2005 spring	57% (58/102)	54% (55/102)	29% (30/102)		44% (45/102)
Total	61% (270/444)	57% (252/444)	35% (154/444)		42% (188/445)
If tourist stayed 3 consecutive nights, chance to see aurora was
month	auroral arc	active aurora	expansion < 24 UT		cloudy 17~22 UT
2004.9	67% (30/30)	63% (29/30)	30% (19/30)		50% ( 2/30)
2004.10	68% (27/31)	52% (26/31)	42% (24/31)		52% ( 5/31)
2004.11	100% (27/29)	93% (27/29)	70% (24/29)		20% (2/29)
2004.12	81% (30/30)	71% (27/30)	42% (20/30)		74% ( 0/30)
2004.1	97% (30/31)	97% (30/31)	77% (24+1/31)		10% ( 3/31)
2004.2	100% (29/29)	100% (29/29)	76% (22/29)		3% ( 1/29)
2004.3	77% (24/31)	74% (23/31)	48% (15/31)		23% ( 7/31)
2004.4	100% (10/10)	100% (10/10)	100% (10/10)		0% ( 0/10)
2004.8	100% ( 5/ 5)	100% ( 5/ 5)	80% ( 4/ 5)		0% ( 0/ 5)
2004.9	57% (17/30)	57% (17/30)	30% ( 9/30)		23% ( 7/30)
2004.10	71% (22/31)	68% (21/31)	52% (16/31)		23% ( 7/31)
2004.11	97% (29/30)	97% (29/30)	80% (24/30)		0% ( 0/30)
2004.12	81% (25/31)	77% (24/31)	61% (19/31)		16% ( 5/31)
2005.1	81% (25/31)	81% (25/31)	52% (16/31)		19% ( 6/31)
2005.2	93% (26/28)	86% (24/28)	71% (20/28)		7% ( 2/28)
2005.3	97% (28/29)	93% (27/29)	76% (22/29)		3% ( 1/29)
2005.4	85% (11/13)	85% (11/13)	54% ( 7/13)		15% ( 2/13)
2003 fall	95% (114/120)	91% (109/120)	73% (87/120)		8% (9/120)
2004 spring	92% (93/101)	91% (92/101)	70% (71/101)		11% (11/101)
2004 fall	77% (98/127)	76% (96/127)	57% (72/127)		15% (19/127)
2005 spring	89% (90/101)	86% (87/101)	64% (65/101)		11% (11/101)
Total	88% (395/449)	86% (384/449)	66% (295/449)		11% (50/449)

cf. Old statistics: 2004, 2005

List of day-to-day visibility (2003.9 ~ 2005.4)
    New list (pdf)
    Old list: 2004, 2005


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Explanation (how the statistics is taken)
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(1) These monthly statistics are compiled from the day-to-day list below. The monthly statistics include the probability that we could see aurora at least once during a 2- or 3-day consecutive period.

(2) In the day-to-day list, one can find the past auroral activity over Kiruna during this season (time is given is in UT: Universal time, which is 1-2 hours behind Swedish time). The classification is made by looking at the all-sky camera data at IRF-Kiruna, which is converted to mpg movies (20 sec resolution) (See top of page)

(3) The aurora is divided into three categories:
    (a) Expansion of the aurora over more than half the sky, which most likely corresponds to substorm onset. The break up time in UT (Greenwich time) is list in a pdf file, where UT is 1-2 hours behind the Swedish local time. All tourists will appreciate this type of aurora.
    (b) Brightening of aurora which might be related to substorm onset. Majority of tourists appreciate this type of aurora.
    (c) Quiet activity. Although it is not spectacular this is also good for photographing.
This first two categories (a and b) are plotted in the graph above.

(4) In the image, the directions are:

    up = north
left=east, right=west
    down=south

* Kiruna local time = UT + 2 hour ( ~ 2003.10.25)
* Kiruna local time = UT + 1 hour (2003.10.26 ~ 2004.03.27)
* Kiruna local time = UT + 2 hour (2004.03.28 ~ 2004.10.30)
* Kiruna local time = UT + 1 hour (2004.10.31 ~ 2005.03.26)
* Kiruna local time = UT + 2 hour (2005.03.27 ~ )


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Highlight

2005-4-11: (dusk to dawn)
2005-4-6: (quick expansion)
2005-3-13: (breakup precursor)
2005-3-8: (breakup from east)
2005-3-7: (multiple breakup)
2005-3-6: (diffuse breakup)
2005-3-5: (breakup)
2005-2-17: (bule-purple line)
2005-2-7: (bule-purple line)
2005-1-11: (pulsation)

2004-12-12: pulsation
2004-11-11: pulsation
2004-11-09: storm explosion
2004-11-07: bule-purple line
2004-04-03: with moon
2004-03-16: omega band
2004-03-13: black band
2004-03-10: multiple diffuse
2004-01-15: evening arc

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