Correlating Weather Model Output & NLC: Idea Exploration

Welcome! Although mainstream weather models are not ready to forecast NLC, it is worth looking at their output to see if we can pick up any broad patterns.

Current Weather Model Output
Historical Comparison NLC & Weather Model Output
Directory with previous charts 2016 2015

Limitations:

model height: Current CMC Global model reaches only 67km. "Close enough" for pattern recognition purposes
model temperature: take it with a big block of salt. Individual values are likely in error but patterns possibly okay
model vertical resolution: levels at this height are very sparse since they are not required for tropospheric weather, except to minimize numerical instability at the boundary
model horizontal resolution: 25km insufficient for wave propagation. Even at 4km one has to ask whether the numerical diffusion used to keep errors from growing is appropriate for the stratosphere and above
model cloud physics: is based on tropospheric nuclei and water vapour behaviour

Regards,
Alister Ling
May 20, 2016; dawn sky gaze at gmail dot com